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Serie A · Italy
Cagliari vs Juventus prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cagliari host Juventus in the Serie A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Juventus Win — Juventus to win. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cagliari 1–1 Juventus.
Going into the match, Cagliari had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Juventus had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Cagliari's last 10 and 3 of Juventus's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cagliari averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Juventus averaged 1.00 scored and 0.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.63 goals from Cagliari and 1.01 from Juventus. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 43%, against 15%, 24% and 61% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 43%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cagliari (green) and Juventus (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Juventus Win | 60% | 1.55 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.