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Premier League · Wales
Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Caernarfon Town host Barry Town in the Premier League (Wales) on 3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Caernarfon Town 0–1 Barry Town.
Going into the match, Caernarfon Town had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 33 and conceding 12. Barry Town had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Caernarfon Town's last 10 and 8 of Barry Town's last 10; 8 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Caernarfon Town averaged 2.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Barry Town averaged 2.25 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.63 goals from Caernarfon Town and 1.59 from Barry Town. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 22%, against 63%, 21% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Caernarfon Town (green) and Barry Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon Town | DWDWW | 3.30 | 1.20 | 60% | 80% |
| Barry Town | LLDWL | 2.40 | 1.90 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Caernarfon Town Win | 63% | 1.42 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.