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FAW Championship · Wales
Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Caerau (Ely) host Afan Lido in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Caerau (Ely) 2–0 Afan Lido.
Going into the match, Caerau (Ely) had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 24. Afan Lido had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Caerau (Ely)'s last 10 and 5 of Afan Lido's last 10; 9 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Caerau (Ely) averaged 2.38 goals scored and 1.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Afan Lido averaged 1.17 scored and 2.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.29 goals from Caerau (Ely) and 1.58 from Afan Lido. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 26%, against 60%, 21% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Caerau (Ely) (green) and Afan Lido (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) | WWWLL | 2.40 | 2.40 | 90% | 90% |
| Afan Lido | DWLDL | 1.40 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Caerau (Ely) Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Caerau (Ely) HT & FT | 41% | 2.25 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.