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Ligue 3 · France
Caen vs La Roche VF prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Caen host La Roche VF in the Ligue 3 (France) on 15 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Caen 2–1 La Roche VF.
Going into the match, Caen had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 13. La Roche VF had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Caen's last 10 and 7 of La Roche VF's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Caen averaged 2.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home La Roche VF averaged 1.00 scored and 0.64 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Caen and 1.51 from La Roche VF. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 36%, against 43%, 26% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Caen (green) and La Roche VF (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen | LWLWW | 1.80 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
| La Roche VF | WWWDD | 1.60 | 0.90 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.