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Segunda División · Spain
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cadiz host Sporting Gijon in the Segunda División (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon.
Going into the match, Cadiz had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Sporting Gijon had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Cadiz's last 10 and 4 of Sporting Gijon's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cadiz averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Sporting Gijon averaged 1.36 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Cadiz and 1.30 from Sporting Gijon. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 36%, against 38%, 30% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cadiz (green) and Sporting Gijon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | WDLLL | 1.40 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
| Sporting Gijon | WLWLL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Sporting Gijon 3–0 Cadiz
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.