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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
CA La Paz vs Venados FC prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CA La Paz host Venados FC in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 3 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.37, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CA La Paz 1–2 Venados FC.
Going into the match, CA La Paz had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 11. Venados FC had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of CA La Paz's last 10 and 8 of Venados FC's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CA La Paz averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Venados FC averaged 1.50 scored and 2.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.64 goals from CA La Paz and 1.46 from Venados FC. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 19%, against 62%, 20% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CA La Paz (green) and Venados FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA La Paz | WWDWW | 2.30 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
| Venados FC | WLWLL | 2.40 | 2.00 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 69% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.37 |
| CA La Paz Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| CA La Paz HT & FT | 42% | 2.30 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.