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FA Cup · England
Bury Town vs Spalding United prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bury Town host Spalding United in the FA Cup (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bury Town 1–1 Spalding United.
Going into the match, Bury Town had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 17. Spalding United had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Bury Town's last 10 and 5 of Spalding United's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bury Town averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Spalding United averaged 1.86 scored and 1.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.42 goals from Bury Town and 1.74 from Spalding United. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 44%, against 32%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bury Town (green) and Spalding United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury Town | WLWWL | 2.50 | 1.70 | 70% | 80% |
| Spalding United | LWWWW | 1.40 | 0.80 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.55 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Spalding United Win | 43% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.