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1. Lig · Turkey
Bursaspor vs Mardin 1969 prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bursaspor host Mardin 1969 in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Bursaspor Win — Bursaspor to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bursaspor 1–2 Mardin 1969.
Going into the match, Bursaspor had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 7. Mardin 1969 had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Bursaspor's last 10 and 3 of Mardin 1969's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bursaspor averaged 2.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Mardin 1969 averaged 1.00 scored and 0.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Bursaspor and 0.67 from Mardin 1969. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 16%, against 54%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bursaspor (green) and Mardin 1969 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | WDWWW | 2.10 | 0.70 | 50% | 70% |
| Mardin 1969 | LLWDD | 1.10 | 0.70 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Bursaspor Win | 55% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.