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AFC Champions League Elite · International
Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 12:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Buriram United host Beijing Guoan in the AFC Champions League Elite (International) on 13 Oct 2026, 12:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Buriram United 0–1 Beijing Guoan.
Going into the match, Buriram United had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Beijing Guoan had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Buriram United's last 10 and 6 of Beijing Guoan's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Buriram United averaged 1.45 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Beijing Guoan averaged 1.92 scored and 1.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.34 goals from Buriram United and 0.97 from Beijing Guoan. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 26%, against 45%, 27% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Buriram United (green) and Beijing Guoan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buriram United | WDWDD | 1.50 | 0.60 | 50% | 40% |
| Beijing Guoan | WWDWD | 2.60 | 0.90 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.