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Segunda División · Spain
Burgos vs Granada CF prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Burgos host Granada CF in the Segunda División (Spain) on 12 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Burgos 0–1 Granada CF.
Going into the match, Burgos had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Granada CF had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Burgos's last 10 and 5 of Granada CF's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Burgos averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Granada CF averaged 1.27 scored and 1.73 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.00 goals from Burgos and 0.77 from Granada CF. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 26%, against 39%, 30% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Burgos (green) and Granada CF (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | LWWWD | 1.20 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
| Granada CF | WLLDL | 1.60 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Granada CF 0–1 Burgos
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.