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Serie D - Girone C · Italy
Brian Lignano vs Luparense prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Brian Lignano host Luparense in the Serie D - Girone C (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.35, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Brian Lignano 1–3 Luparense.
Going into the match, Brian Lignano had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 9 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 15. Luparense had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Brian Lignano's last 9 and 4 of Luparense's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Brian Lignano averaged 2.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Luparense averaged 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.67 goals from Brian Lignano and 1.84 from Luparense. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 64%, against 32%, 26% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Brian Lignano (green) and Luparense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Lignano | WLLLL | 2.00 | 1.67 | 67% | 67% |
| Luparense | WDWDW | 1.40 | 0.80 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.27 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.38 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.35 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.93 |
| Luparense Win | 42% | 2.28 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.