Home › League stats › Premier League Cup › Brentford U21 vs Derby County U21
Premier League Cup · England
Brentford U21 vs Derby County U21 prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Brentford U21 host Derby County U21 in the Premier League Cup (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Brentford U21 4–2 Derby County U21.
Going into the match, Brentford U21 had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 21. Derby County U21 had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 32 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Brentford U21's last 10 and 8 of Derby County U21's last 10; 6 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Brentford U21 averaged 2.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Derby County U21 averaged 1.67 scored and 3.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.05 goals from Brentford U21 and 1.98 from Derby County U21. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 23%, against 56%, 21% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Brentford U21 (green) and Derby County U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford U21 | LWLLD | 1.90 | 2.10 | 70% | 60% |
| Derby County U21 | LLWDW | 1.60 | 3.20 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Apr 2026 · Brentford U21 2–0 Derby County U21
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.45 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.65 |
| Brentford U21 Win | 54% | 1.60 |
| Brentford U21 HT & FT | 39% | 2.40 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.