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First League · Bulgaria
Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Botev Plovdiv host Slavia Sofia in the First League (Bulgaria) on 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Botev Plovdiv Win — Botev Plovdiv to win. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia Sofia.
Going into the match, Botev Plovdiv had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 14. Slavia Sofia had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Botev Plovdiv's last 10 and 6 of Slavia Sofia's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Botev Plovdiv averaged 2.06 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Slavia Sofia averaged 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Botev Plovdiv and 0.91 from Slavia Sofia. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 20%, against 57%, 25% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Botev Plovdiv (green) and Slavia Sofia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | WWWLL | 1.60 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
| Slavia Sofia | WLDWL | 1.10 | 0.90 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 58% | 1.61 |
| Botev Plovdiv Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.