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Serie A · Brazil
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Botafogo host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A (Brazil) on 7 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Botafogo 1–2 Vasco DA Gama.
Going into the match, Botafogo had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 19. Vasco DA Gama had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Botafogo's last 10 and 4 of Vasco DA Gama's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Botafogo averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Vasco DA Gama averaged 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Botafogo and 1.27 from Vasco DA Gama. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 40%, against 35%, 28% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Botafogo (green) and Vasco DA Gama (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | LWDDL | 0.90 | 1.90 | 50% | 40% |
| Vasco DA Gama | WWWDL | 2.00 | 0.80 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.