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Serie B · Brazil
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Botafogo SP host Vila Nova in the Serie B (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Botafogo SP 0–1 Vila Nova.
Going into the match, Botafogo SP had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 15. Vila Nova had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Botafogo SP's last 10 and 1 of Vila Nova's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Botafogo SP averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Vila Nova averaged 0.94 scored and 1.38 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.94 goals from Botafogo SP and 1.08 from Vila Nova. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 37%, against 39%, 31% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | WDLLL | 1.00 | 1.50 | 60% | 50% |
| Vila Nova | WWDWL | 1.60 | 0.70 | 10% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Jun 2026 · Vila Nova 1–0 Botafogo SP
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Botafogo SP Win | 39% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.