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Serie C · Brazil
Botafogo PB vs Santa Cruz prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Botafogo PB host Santa Cruz in the Serie C (Brazil) on 10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Botafogo PB 1–0 Santa Cruz.
Going into the match, Botafogo PB had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Santa Cruz had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Botafogo PB's last 10 and 4 of Santa Cruz's last 10; 3 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Botafogo PB averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Santa Cruz averaged 1.25 scored and 0.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Botafogo PB and 0.79 from Santa Cruz. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 29%, against 36%, 31% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Botafogo PB (green) and Santa Cruz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo PB | DDLLL | 1.00 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
| Santa Cruz | DDWWW | 1.00 | 0.70 | 40% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Sep 2026 · Santa Cruz 1–0 Botafogo PB
- 8 Aug 2026 · Botafogo PB 2–2 Santa Cruz
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.