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Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bosnia & Herzegovina host Sweden in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden.
Going into the match, Bosnia & Herzegovina had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 8 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Sweden had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 8, with 15 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Bosnia & Herzegovina's last 8 and 7 of Sweden's last 8; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bosnia & Herzegovina averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Sweden averaged 0.75 scored and 3.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Bosnia & Herzegovina and 1.13 from Sweden. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 33%, against 35%, 27% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bosnia & Herzegovina (green) and Sweden (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | WDLWL | 1.25 | 1.38 | 63% | 38% |
| Sweden | WWLDL | 1.88 | 2.13 | 88% | 88% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.