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Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bosnia & Herzegovina host Poland in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 Poland.
Going into the match, Bosnia & Herzegovina had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Poland had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with 9 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Bosnia & Herzegovina's last 9 and 2 of Poland's last 5; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bosnia & Herzegovina averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Poland averaged 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded across 1.
The 1X2 prices imply about 33% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 27% for the draw and 40% for Poland once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bosnia & Herzegovina (green) and Poland (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | DWDLW | 1.22 | 1.33 | 67% | 33% |
| Poland | WLDDL | 1.80 | 1.40 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Sep 2026 · Poland 0–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.