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Bundesliga · Germany
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen.
Going into the match, Borussia Dortmund had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 10. Werder Bremen had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Borussia Dortmund's last 10 and 6 of Werder Bremen's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Borussia Dortmund averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Werder Bremen averaged 2.13 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.15 goals from Borussia Dortmund and 0.86 from Werder Bremen. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 13%, against 72%, 17% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Borussia Dortmund (green) and Werder Bremen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | WWWWW | 2.40 | 1.00 | 50% | 70% |
| Werder Bremen | WDWLW | 2.10 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 71% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Borussia Dortmund 1st Half Win | 55% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Borussia Dortmund HT & FT | 52% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.