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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Borgosesia host Sestri Levante in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Borgosesia to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Borgosesia 0–1 Sestri Levante.
Going into the match, Borgosesia had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Sestri Levante had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Borgosesia's last 5 and 6 of Sestri Levante's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Borgosesia averaged 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Sestri Levante averaged 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Borgosesia and 1.09 from Sestri Levante. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 34%, against 40%, 29% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Borgosesia (green) and Sestri Levante (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borgosesia | DWDDL | 1.00 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
| Sestri Levante | LDLLW | 1.10 | 1.50 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Borgosesia Win | 40% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.