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Championship · England
Bolton vs Middlesbrough prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bolton host Middlesbrough in the Championship (England) on 23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Bolton had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Middlesbrough had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Bolton's last 10 and 7 of Middlesbrough's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bolton averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Middlesbrough averaged 1.42 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.50 goals from Bolton and 1.35 from Middlesbrough. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 33%, against 18%, 22% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bolton (green) and Middlesbrough (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | DWLWW | 1.30 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
| Middlesbrough | DWWDD | 1.90 | 1.60 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Middlesbrough Win | 60% | 1.55 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.