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CONMEBOL Sudamericana · International
Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Boca Juniors host Vasco DA Gama in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana (International) on 14 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco DA Gama.
Going into the match, Boca Juniors had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Vasco DA Gama had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Boca Juniors's last 10 and 3 of Vasco DA Gama's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Boca Juniors averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Vasco DA Gama averaged 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Boca Juniors and 0.91 from Vasco DA Gama. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 25%, against 51%, 30% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Boca Juniors (green) and Vasco DA Gama (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | DWWWD | 1.80 | 0.80 | 50% | 50% |
| Vasco DA Gama | DWWWW | 1.70 | 0.40 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| BTTS No | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Boca Juniors Win | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 40% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.