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Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina
Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Boca Juniors host Union Santa Fe in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) on 3 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Boca Juniors 3–0 Union Santa Fe.
Going into the match, Boca Juniors had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 7. Union Santa Fe had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Boca Juniors's last 10 and 8 of Union Santa Fe's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Boca Juniors averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Union Santa Fe averaged 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.23 goals from Boca Juniors and 0.80 from Union Santa Fe. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 11%, against 65%, 23% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Boca Juniors (green) and Union Santa Fe (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | WWDWW | 1.80 | 0.70 | 50% | 40% |
| Union Santa Fe | LLWWW | 1.70 | 1.60 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Boca Juniors Win | 65% | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.