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J2 League · Japan
Blaublitz Akita vs Sagan Tosu prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Blaublitz Akita host Sagan Tosu in the J2 League (Japan) on 4 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Blaublitz Akita 1–0 Sagan Tosu.
Going into the match, Blaublitz Akita had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 15. Sagan Tosu had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Blaublitz Akita's last 10 and 5 of Sagan Tosu's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Blaublitz Akita averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Sagan Tosu averaged 0.91 scored and 1.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Blaublitz Akita and 1.19 from Sagan Tosu. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 40%, against 29%, 29% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Blaublitz Akita (green) and Sagan Tosu (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaublitz Akita | DDWDL | 1.20 | 1.50 | 50% | 50% |
| Sagan Tosu | DLLLL | 1.30 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 71% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.