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2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
Bjarg vs Notodden prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bjarg host Notodden in the 2. Division - Group 1 (Norway) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bjarg 5–2 Notodden.
Going into the match, Bjarg had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 13. Notodden had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Bjarg's last 10 and 4 of Notodden's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bjarg averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Notodden averaged 1.91 scored and 0.64 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.07 goals from Bjarg and 1.32 from Notodden. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 23%, against 65%, 19% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bjarg (green) and Notodden (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · Notodden 0–1 Bjarg
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Bjarg Win | 67% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| Bjarg HT & FT | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.