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Premier League 2 Division One · England
Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21 prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Birmingham City U21 host Derby County U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One (England) on 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Birmingham City U21 0–4 Derby County U21.
Going into the match, Birmingham City U21 had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 23. Derby County U21 had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 32 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Birmingham City U21's last 10 and 9 of Derby County U21's last 10; 8 and 10 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Birmingham City U21 averaged 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Derby County U21 averaged 1.75 scored and 3.00 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.60 goals from Birmingham City U21 and 2.34 from Derby County U21. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 36%, against 31%, 22% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Birmingham City U21 (green) and Derby County U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City U21 | LLDWL | 1.50 | 2.30 | 50% | 80% |
| Derby County U21 | DLLLW | 1.90 | 3.20 | 90% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 69% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 1.33 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 67% | 1.37 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.63 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 53% | 1.79 |
| Derby County U21 Win | 47% | 1.90 |
| Derby County U21 HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
| 1-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Birmingham City U21 form and statistics
- Derby County U21 form and statistics
- Premier League 2 Division One statistics
Other Premier League 2 Division One matches that day
- Wolves U21 vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Premier League 2 Division One
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals · FT 2–1