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1 Lyga · Lithuania
BFA vs Žalgiris II prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
BFA host Žalgiris II in the 1 Lyga (Lithuania) on 9 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: BFA 1–2 Žalgiris II.
Going into the match, BFA had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 12. Žalgiris II had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of BFA's last 10 and 4 of Žalgiris II's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home BFA averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Žalgiris II averaged 1.27 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from BFA and 1.54 from Žalgiris II. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 38%, against 52%, 24% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between BFA (green) and Žalgiris II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFA | LDWWD | 1.70 | 1.20 | 60% | 50% |
| Žalgiris II | LWWWW | 1.70 | 0.70 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 May 2026 · Žalgiris II 3–4 BFA
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.29 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.60 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.61 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| BFA Win | 52% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.