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Süper Lig · Turkey
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Beşiktaş host Kocaelispor in the Süper Lig (Turkey) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Beşiktaş 2–1 Kocaelispor.
Going into the match, Beşiktaş had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 9. Kocaelispor had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Beşiktaş's last 10 and 2 of Kocaelispor's last 10; 6 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Beşiktaş averaged 2.23 goals scored and 0.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Kocaelispor averaged 0.57 scored and 1.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Beşiktaş and 0.60 from Kocaelispor. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 13%, against 74%, 18% and 8% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Beşiktaş (green) and Kocaelispor (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | LWWWW | 2.20 | 0.90 | 40% | 60% |
| Kocaelispor | WLWWW | 0.80 | 0.80 | 20% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş Win | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Beşiktaş 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Beşiktaş HT & FT | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.