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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Benfica vs Vitória SC prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Benfica host Vitória SC in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC.
Going into the match, Benfica had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 29 and conceding 8. Vitória SC had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Benfica's last 10 and 4 of Vitória SC's last 10; 8 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Benfica averaged 3.08 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Vitória SC averaged 1.11 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.13 goals from Benfica and 0.73 from Vitória SC. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 11%, against 78%, 15% and 7% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Benfica (green) and Vitória SC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | LWWWW | 2.90 | 0.80 | 60% | 80% |
| Vitória SC | WDLDL | 0.90 | 0.90 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Win | 79% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Benfica 1st Half Win | 58% | 1.57 |
| Benfica HT & FT | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.