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Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Spain
Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bembibre host La Virgen del Camino in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bembibre 2–0 La Virgen del Camino.
Going into the match, Bembibre had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 16. La Virgen del Camino had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 9, with 12 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Bembibre's last 9 and 6 of La Virgen del Camino's last 9; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bembibre averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home La Virgen del Camino averaged 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.08 goals from Bembibre and 1.02 from La Virgen del Camino. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 17%, against 35%, 30% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bembibre (green) and La Virgen del Camino (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bembibre | WLDWL | 1.89 | 1.78 | 78% | 67% |
| La Virgen del Camino | LWWWL | 1.33 | 1.56 | 67% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
| La Virgen del Camino Win | 36% | 2.50 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 7.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.