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Belgium vs Türkiye prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Belgium host Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Belgium 3–0 Türkiye.
Going into the match, Belgium had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 8. Türkiye had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 7, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Belgium's last 10 and 3 of Türkiye's last 7; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Belgium averaged 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Türkiye averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.43 goals from Belgium and 0.82 from Türkiye. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 10%, against 62%, 20% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Belgium (green) and Türkiye (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Belgium Win | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.