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Liga Alef · Israel
Beitar Nahariya vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Beitar Nahariya host Hapoel Umm al-Fahm in the Liga Alef (Israel) on 9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Beitar Nahariya 1–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm.
Going into the match, Beitar Nahariya had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Hapoel Umm al-Fahm had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4, with 7 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Beitar Nahariya's last 5 and 3 of Hapoel Umm al-Fahm's last 4; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Beitar Nahariya averaged 2.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Hapoel Umm al-Fahm averaged 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 1.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.70 goals from Beitar Nahariya and 1.00 from Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 21%, against 53%, 25% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Beitar Nahariya (green) and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beitar Nahariya | LWWWW | 1.80 | 1.00 | 40% | 60% |
| Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | DDWD | 1.75 | 1.50 | 75% | 75% |
Averages over each side's last 5 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.29 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Beitar Nahariya Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Beitar Nahariya HT & FT | 35% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.