Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 66%Final score 1–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Beijing Guoan host Qingdao Youth Island in the Super League (China) on 18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Beijing Guoan 1–0 Qingdao Youth Island.

Going into the match, Beijing Guoan had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 8. Qingdao Youth Island had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 10 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Beijing Guoan's last 10 and 3 of Qingdao Youth Island's last 10; 7 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Beijing Guoan averaged 2.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Qingdao Youth Island averaged 1.08 scored and 1.25 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.93 goals from Beijing Guoan and 0.75 from Qingdao Youth Island. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 13%, against 66%, 20% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Beijing Guoan (green) and Qingdao Youth Island (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form60% – 40%

Attack67% – 33%

Defence64% – 36%

Head-to-head75% – 25%

Goals60% – 40%

Overall strength65% – 34%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Beijing Guoan	WWWDW	2.50	0.80	50%	70%
Qingdao Youth Island	LDDWD	0.90	1.00	30%	20%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

19 May 2026 · Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Beijing Guoan

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	76%	1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.25
Beijing Guoan Win	66%	1.40
Over 2.5 Goals	66%	1.44
BTTS Yes	58%	1.62
Under 3.5 Goals	54%	1.73
Under 10.5 Corners	54%	1.73
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.