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FA Cup · England
Bedford Town vs Wingate & Finchley prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bedford Town host Wingate & Finchley in the FA Cup (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bedford Town 2–2 Wingate & Finchley.
Going into the match, Bedford Town had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 14. Wingate & Finchley had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Bedford Town's last 10 and 6 of Wingate & Finchley's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bedford Town averaged 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Wingate & Finchley averaged 1.55 scored and 2.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.64 goals from Bedford Town and 1.17 from Wingate & Finchley. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 26%, against 57%, 22% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bedford Town (green) and Wingate & Finchley (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford Town | DWLWW | 1.60 | 1.40 | 80% | 70% |
| Wingate & Finchley | WWDWL | 1.80 | 1.50 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.23 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.48 |
| Bedford Town Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.72 |
| Bedford Town HT & FT | 39% | 2.38 |
| 2-1 | 9% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.