Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.50Market probability 64%Final score 2–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Bayer Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg.

Going into the match, Bayer Leverkusen had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 11. SC Freiburg had won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 33 scored and 11 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 and 8 of SC Freiburg's last 10; 8 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bayer Leverkusen averaged 2.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded across 10 matches; away from home SC Freiburg averaged 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.70 goals from Bayer Leverkusen and 1.13 from SC Freiburg. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 13%, against 57%, 22% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Bayer Leverkusen (green) and SC Freiburg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form43% – 57%

Attack50% – 50%

Defence33% – 67%

Head-to-head85% – 15%

Goals65% – 35%

Overall strength55% – 44%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Bayer Leverkusen	WWWWD	2.70	1.10	50%	80%
SC Freiburg	WWWDW	3.30	1.10	80%	90%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	78%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	76%	1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No	73%	1.28
Over 2.5 Goals	64%	1.50
BTTS Yes	63%	1.50
Bayer Leverkusen Win	56%	1.67
Under 3.5 Goals	56%	1.73
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	56%	1.67

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.