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Ligue 3 · France
Bastia vs Orleans prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bastia host Orleans in the Ligue 3 (France) on 1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bastia 1–1 Orleans.
Going into the match, Bastia had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 16. Orleans had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Bastia's last 10 and 4 of Orleans's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bastia averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Orleans averaged 1.30 scored and 1.10 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.05 goals from Bastia and 1.04 from Orleans. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 34%, against 40%, 29% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bastia (green) and Orleans (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Bastia Win | 40% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.