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Non League Premier - Southern South · England
Basingstoke Town vs Malvern Town prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Basingstoke Town host Malvern Town in the Non League Premier - Southern South (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.41, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Basingstoke Town 4–1 Malvern Town.
Going into the match, Basingstoke Town had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Malvern Town had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Basingstoke Town's last 10 and 6 of Malvern Town's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Basingstoke Town averaged 1.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Malvern Town averaged 0.64 scored and 2.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.30 goals from Basingstoke Town and 1.49 from Malvern Town. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 24%, against 48%, 24% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Basingstoke Town (green) and Malvern Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basingstoke Town | LLDDL | 1.10 | 1.20 | 60% | 30% |
| Malvern Town | LDWLL | 1.10 | 2.40 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.27 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.41 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.68 |
| Basingstoke Town Win | 48% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 36% | 2.62 |
| Basingstoke Town HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.