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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Basconia vs Llanera prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Basconia host Llanera in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Basconia 1–1 Llanera.
Going into the match, Basconia had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 15. Llanera had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Basconia's last 10 and 5 of Llanera's last 10; 9 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Basconia averaged 2.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Llanera averaged 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.94 goals from Basconia and 1.64 from Llanera. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 32%, against 54%, 23% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Basconia (green) and Llanera (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.68 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Basconia Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| Basconia HT & FT | 37% | 2.50 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.