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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Barakaldo host Arenas Getxo in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Barakaldo 1–1 Arenas Getxo.
Going into the match, Barakaldo had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Arenas Getxo had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Barakaldo's last 10 and 5 of Arenas Getxo's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Barakaldo averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Arenas Getxo averaged 0.71 scored and 2.86 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.14 goals from Barakaldo and 0.77 from Arenas Getxo. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 11%, against 61%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Barakaldo (green) and Arenas Getxo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | DLWLD | 1.20 | 1.40 | 40% | 30% |
| Arenas Getxo | LLLLD | 0.80 | 2.30 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Barakaldo Win | 61% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.