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Championship · Northern Ireland
Ballinamallard United vs Ards prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ballinamallard United host Ards in the Championship (Northern Ireland) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ballinamallard United 1–1 Ards.
Going into the match, Ballinamallard United had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Ards had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Ballinamallard United's last 10 and 5 of Ards's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ballinamallard United averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Ards averaged 1.13 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Ballinamallard United and 0.73 from Ards. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 22%, against 35%, 26% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ballinamallard United (green) and Ards (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballinamallard United | LWDWL | 1.60 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
| Ards | LDWLL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.