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Serie A · Brazil
Bahia vs Mirassol prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bahia host Mirassol in the Serie A (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bahia 1–0 Mirassol.
Going into the match, Bahia had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 12. Mirassol had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Bahia's last 10 and 6 of Mirassol's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bahia averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Mirassol averaged 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Bahia and 1.18 from Mirassol. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 31%, against 55%, 26% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bahia (green) and Mirassol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Mirassol 1–2 Bahia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Bahia Win | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.