Bahia vs Flamengo prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.50Market probability 64%Final score 0–3

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Bahia host Flamengo in the Serie A (Brazil) on 18 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Bahia 0–3 Flamengo.

Going into the match, Bahia had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 11. Flamengo had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 5 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Bahia's last 10 and 4 of Flamengo's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bahia averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Flamengo averaged 1.76 scored and 0.76 conceded across 17.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.89 goals from Bahia and 1.68 from Flamengo. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 55%, against 29%, 28% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Bahia (green) and Flamengo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form41% – 59%

Attack47% – 53%

Defence40% – 60%

Head-to-head20% – 80%

Goals14% – 86%

Overall strength33% – 66%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Bahia	WLLWW	1.50	1.10	50%	50%
Flamengo	DWDWD	1.60	0.50	40%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

20 Apr 2026 · Flamengo 2–0 Bahia

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	79%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.25
Double Chance 12	73%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	64%	1.50
BTTS Yes	61%	1.53
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	61%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	57%	1.65

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.