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Bahamas vs US Virgin Islands prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bahamas host US Virgin Islands in the CONCACAF Nations League (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is US Virgin Islands Win — US Virgin Islands to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bahamas 2–3 US Virgin Islands.
Going into the match, Bahamas had won 0, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 2 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 11. US Virgin Islands had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3, with 5 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Bahamas's last 2 and 1 of US Virgin Islands's last 3; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bahamas averaged 0.00 goals scored and 8.00 conceded across 1 matches; away from home US Virgin Islands averaged 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded across 1.
The 1X2 prices imply about 15% for Bahamas, 21% for the draw and 64% for US Virgin Islands once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bahamas (green) and US Virgin Islands (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahamas | LL | 0.50 | 5.50 | 50% | 100% |
| US Virgin Islands | LWW | 1.67 | 2.00 | 33% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 3 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Sep 2026 · US Virgin Islands 3–1 Bahamas
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.31 |
| US Virgin Islands Win | 64% | 1.45 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 58% | 2.00 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.