Home › League stats › FAW Championship › Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town
FAW Championship · Wales
Baglan Dragons vs Pontypridd Town prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Baglan Dragons host Pontypridd Town in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Baglan Dragons 1–1 Pontypridd Town.
Going into the match, Baglan Dragons had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Pontypridd Town had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Baglan Dragons's last 10 and 8 of Pontypridd Town's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Baglan Dragons averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Pontypridd Town averaged 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Baglan Dragons and 1.48 from Pontypridd Town. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 42%, against 33%, 25% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Baglan Dragons (green) and Pontypridd Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | WLLWL | 1.10 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
| Pontypridd Town | WLWLD | 2.30 | 1.60 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Pontypridd Town Win | 42% | 2.10 |
| Pontypridd Town HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.