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NM Cupen · Norway
Bærum vs Lillestrom prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bærum host Lillestrom in the NM Cupen (Norway) on 1 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bærum 1–5 Lillestrom.
Going into the match, Bærum had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 28 and conceding 18. Lillestrom had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Bærum's last 10 and 5 of Lillestrom's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bærum averaged 3.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Lillestrom averaged 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.18 goals from Bærum and 2.98 from Lillestrom. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 15% and an away win at 73%, against 8%, 14% and 78% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bærum (green) and Lillestrom (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bærum | LLLWD | 2.80 | 1.80 | 70% | 70% |
| Lillestrom | LLWWW | 1.10 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Lillestrom 1st Half Win | 63% | 1.50 |
| Lillestrom HT & FT | 62% | 1.53 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 57% | 2.05 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.