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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Badajoz vs Marbella prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Badajoz host Marbella in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.85, which the bookmaker market rated at about 52% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Badajoz 1–0 Marbella.
Going into the match, Badajoz had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Marbella had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Badajoz's last 10 and 5 of Marbella's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Badajoz averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Marbella averaged 1.40 scored and 3.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.92 goals from Badajoz and 0.49 from Marbella. From that it rates a home win at 71%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 8%, against 46%, 26% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Badajoz (green) and Marbella (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Badajoz Win | 47% | 1.95 |
| Badajoz HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.