Home › League stats › UEFA Nations League › Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
UEFA Nations League · International
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Azerbaijan host Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Azerbaijan 1–0 Lithuania.
Going into the match, Azerbaijan had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Lithuania had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with 7 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Azerbaijan's last 5 and 2 of Lithuania's last 5; 1 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Azerbaijan averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Lithuania averaged 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded across 2.
The 1X2 prices imply about 40% for Azerbaijan, 31% for the draw and 29% for Lithuania once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Azerbaijan (green) and Lithuania (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | DDWWL | 0.80 | 0.80 | 40% | 20% |
| Lithuania | WDWLD | 1.40 | 0.60 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 5 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Sep 2026 · Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Azerbaijan Win | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.