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Championship · Scotland
Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ayr Utd host Dunfermline in the Championship (Scotland) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ayr Utd 1–1 Dunfermline.
Going into the match, Ayr Utd had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Dunfermline had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ayr Utd's last 10 and 4 of Dunfermline's last 10; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ayr Utd averaged 1.73 goals scored and 0.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Dunfermline averaged 0.93 scored and 1.13 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.02 goals from Ayr Utd and 0.78 from Dunfermline. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 26%, against 29%, 28% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ayr Utd (green) and Dunfermline (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | WLWLL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 50% | 30% |
| Dunfermline | LWWDW | 0.90 | 1.00 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · Dunfermline 1–1 Ayr Utd
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance X2 | 71% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.