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Segunda Liga · Portugal
AVS vs Tondela prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AVS host Tondela in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 25 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, AVS had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Tondela had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of AVS's last 10 and 3 of Tondela's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AVS averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Tondela averaged 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from AVS and 0.81 from Tondela. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 30%, against 27%, 29% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AVS (green) and Tondela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.