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J1 League · Japan
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Avispa Fukuoka host Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League (Japan) on 10 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano Okayama.
Going into the match, Avispa Fukuoka had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Fagiano Okayama had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Avispa Fukuoka's last 10 and 6 of Fagiano Okayama's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Avispa Fukuoka averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Fagiano Okayama averaged 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Avispa Fukuoka and 1.40 from Fagiano Okayama. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 44%, against 31%, 29% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Avispa Fukuoka (green) and Fagiano Okayama (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | LDLLD | 1.00 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
| Fagiano Okayama | WWLWW | 1.60 | 0.90 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance X2 | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.